Sunday, April 18, 2010

Nightmare 2012: Chinese Special Forces cut off Siliguri corridor

India has the potential to be to Asia what America is to the world - a symbol of hope, liberty and freedom.

Closed societies like China or Pakistan do not fit the bill. Due to authoritarian regimes in Beijing and Islamabad, in times to come they will remain preoccupied with growing internal societal turmoil.

Therefore, they will naturally tend to threaten democratic India, militarily and with the help of their irregular forces to divert attention from the brewing internal storm. Also because on one hand, the Indian democracy negates their authoritarian philosophy, and on the other, the Union is perceived as a soft target to be conquered or ruptured.

But technology driven 21st century cannot be China’s century in Asia as is being touted by its proxy Pakistan or the Chinese themselves. Simply because these are very brittle, regressive and perpetually paranoid societies. Societies that cannot sustain such enlarged influence and get into an over reach. While the People’s Liberation Army, the largest in the world, consists of 3.5 million soldiers to project power, Beijing employs whopping 21 million to police internal dissent.

Military threat from such dictatorial regimes to free societies like India will increase as the western democracies retreat from Asia. There already exists a severe trust deficit between China and the small countries in the region.

India is the perhaps the only country in Asia that can boast of the potential to occupy the strategic high ground gradually being vacated by the retreating western forces, provided it develops offensive orientation at the political level.

Unlike China, its soft power increasingly impacts on Asia. The young demographic profile will continue to propel Indian economy to greater heights at least till end of 2050. China’s ageing profile shows trends that it will, first grow old then rich, unlike Japan, which grew rich then old. India if governed fairly well, will grow rich and then old like Japan.

India’s multi-ethnic, multi-cultural and multi-religious society is the melting pot in Asia that benefits from rich diversity and open society. However, it is not as fortunate to be situated geographically in a safe haven like America, which is surrounded by nations with similar values.