Intelligence reports have already pointed out that such groups are already coming up with posters and banners demanding homeland in areas dominated by the Muslims, mostly from suspected Bangladeshis.
After effecting a significant change in the demographic profile of a number of districts in the North-East by facilitating illegal infiltration of Bangladeshis, the insurgent outfits in the region are now working on a long-term agenda for creating an exclusive homeland for Muslims.
A confidential report from a key para-military force fighting insurgency in the North-East to the Union Home Ministry has classified insurgency in the region into three categories -- ethnic/extortionist, terrorist and secessionist groups.
The secessionists, according to the CRPF report, essentially comprise Islamic fundamental groups who also provide logistics support to the ethnic and terrorist groups in order to strengthen its influence in the region. “The insurgency situation in the North-East is dominated by what can be termed sub-national aspirations of groups within existing territorial divisions,” states the report, adding that the rest of the insurgent groups have ethnic aspirations.
Concerns about the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in the North-East were raised by many Chief Ministers at the CMs' conference on security, which was recently held in Delhi. Expressing fears over the increasing influx of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants into his State, Nagaland Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio said. “The decadal population growth rate between 1991 and 2001 as recorded in the 2001 census was 64.41 per cent — the highest in the country. Further, it is striking that the number of masjids and madrasas has increased from 27 to 28 in 2007 and 2008 in the State.”
Rio added, “During the same period (1991-2001), several areas in Dimapur and Wokha districts bordering Assam recorded exceptionally high rates of population growth. It is a fact that the silent and unchecked influx of illegal migrants in the district has played a crucial role in this abnormal growth and is slowly resulting in a change in the demographic profile of the inhabitants in certain parts of the State.”
Rio further said that such demographic changes required urgent attention as they would add to the tensions already prevailing in a volatile insurgency situation. The Nagaland CM also expressed apprehension over the involvement of Muslims in the NSCN (IM) for extortion and the community's involvement with HuJI and other terror groups.
“There is strong possibility of Islamic extremists establishing ‘sleeper cells’ in Nagaland by taking advantage of their contacts inside the State. Another possible scenario is that these Islamic extremist elements may either develop differences with the NSCN (IM) and form a rogue terrorist group or set up a new organisation with links to other Muslim extremist groups to further their own agenda,” the Nagaland CM had told the conference chaired by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
Similar apprehensions were also raised by Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, Arunachal Pradesh CM Dorjee Khandu, Tripura CM Manik Sarkar and Meghalaya CM DD Lapang.
As per the report by the Central Reserve Police Force, the number of insurgent groups in the North-East has surpassed the total number of such outfits at the national level and Islamists have infiltrated most of the groups.
With 43 active outfits in the small State of Manipur, it has exceeded the figures of active insurgent outfits reported for secessionist activities in Jammu and Kashmir.
While Assam has 38 active insurgent groups, Tripura has 32 similar organisations.
While both Meghalaya and Mizoram have six outfits each, Nagaland has four and Arunachal Pradesh has one insurgent group. In Manipur, Assam and Tripura, the terrorist groups have outnumbered the districts, highlights the report.
Inputs with the Centre also suggest that the groups have serious differences in terms of ideological positions, but there are various levels of operational understanding between them. The two main Naga outfits coordinate among various outfits in the region. The NSCN (K) has a functional understanding with ULFA and UNLF and the NSCN (IM) has similar arrangement with the PLA, ULFA and operational understanding with National Democratic Front of Bodoland and Kamtapur Liberation Organisation and NLFT. Most of these arrangements are for logistics such as training, movement, arms procurement and not direct operational intervention.
Despite the overall decline in insurgent activities, the spatial spread has not revealed any significant change. Active insurgent outfits -- like the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), United National Liberation Front (UNLF), People's Liberation Army (PLA), Isaac-Muivah and Khaplang factions of Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN), All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF) and National Liberation Front of Tripura -- represent the maximum levels of violent insurgent activities.
The year 2008 witnessed more violent incidents and deaths than the preceding year. According to the data available, 480 civilians and 742 insurgents were killed in 1,646 violent incidents in the North-East. Fifty-three security force personnel were killed in action and more than 1,000 arms were recovered from various terror groups.
In 2007, the region witnessed 1,490 violent incidents, in which 498 civilians and 503 insurgents were killed. During the period, 79 security personnel were also killed.
However, the number of bomb blasts decreased to 45 from a significant 83 explosions in 2007.
TROUBLE BREWING
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