A window of opportunity for Pakistan

Political analyst Imtiaz Gul was among those enjoying a quiet dinner at the Marriot in Islamabad when a suicide bomber rammed a dumper truck loaded with explosives into the hotel. He escaped and recalls looking back at the raging fire: "Hell had arrived in Islamabad."

That hell had been in the making since the aftermath of 9/11 in the distant, rugged tribal terrain that marks the
border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The US war on terror had pushed thousands of militants, Africans, Arabs, Uzbeks and Uighurs into the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) where the legendary and unquestioning hospitality of the tribals allowed these 'foreign guests' to set up strong local networks. In his recently released book The Al Qaeda Connection: Terror in Pakistan's Tribal Areas, Gul documents the complex factors that allowed militancy to grow unfettered there.

Given the fact that there are new developments almost every day in the region, what drove you to write this book at this juncture?

What compelled me to write this book were the events of March 2004 when the Pakistan army launched its operation in South Waziristan. The Pakistani government for the first time realised the beehive that was in the making in the region. Till then it had been in a state of denial about the growth of militancy on its soil.

The terrorists had been beaten out of Afghanistan and had gathered in North and South Waziristan. The entire story had been evolving since 1988 starting with the Mujahideen, then the rise of the Taliban and finally the growth of smaller terror groups inspired by the Al Qaeda.

I wanted to document the circumstances that turned the region into a zone where various conflicting foreign and domestic forces played out a battle of interests. There was NATO, the Uzbeks, the Arabs and several other elements who used the tribal territory for their own ends. Between them they created a space where non-state actors could grow and flourish.

Wasn't Pakistan aware that the area had turned into a fertile breeding ground for these militants much before the 2004 operation?

Oh yes, Pakistan was aware of the fact. But it was the first time the establishment realised that the people they
thought they controlled could bite back. We saw it again in Swat this year when the government tried to hammer a deal with the insurgents who were simply not interested in peace.

It was only then that the Pak establishment reacted by militarily fixing the situation. And this effort has been
recognised and appreciated internationally. It paid a big price for this -- nearly two million people were
displaced in the operations.

Do you think the operation launched by the Pakistan government this time around will be strong and persistent enough to reach a happy ending?

The vibes this time I think are strong enough to conclude that we are finally moving in the right direction.
Pakistan has concluded that ignorant people with tunnel vision cannot be partners in any kind of future that it
wants for itself. There is now a close alliance between the US and Pakistan.

Baitullah Mehsud is dead and two of his closest aides have been caught. This presents a big window of opportunity for us. These insurgent groups are not structured -- they are rag-tag armies of men who assembled under the TTP. They ignored their regional differences because Mehsud connected them -- through his tremendous network -- to the Al Qaeda. This connection now is in disarray.

In a chapter on who funds terror in FATA you have listed several suspects. Given the kind of games that nations and agencies played in the region and the many conspiracy theories afloat how can anyone get to the truth?

There have always been suspicions about the roles played by various nations in the area. Iran had an axe to grind so did Russia. Look at the facts and see what they indicate. Helmund in Afghanistan produces 65-70 per cent of the poppy grown in the country. Who is stationed in Helmumd?

More than 5,000 UK troops. Next door in Kandahar there are 3,000 Canadian troops. How are they all missing what is happening in Helmund -- where poppy is being used to fund terror? Between all these players they have turned Afghanistan into a narco state.

Consider abductions for ransom. I have myself collected these figures. In Peshawar, during the first week of July and the first week of August, one person was abducted every single day! Who is behind this crime?

They are criminal gangs that pretend they have the Taliban backing. Ransom money is a huge source of funding for terror. In entire remote tribal stretches there is total lawlessness presenting criminals with space to operate in the name of insurgency. We have had 42 suicide attacks in Pakistan this year. All this is the result of our earlier policies hammered out along with the CIA and the Taliban. The tribal area is open to exploitation because of the nature of the people there, the terrain and poor governance.

There was talk of distinguising between good Taliban and bad Taliban. How well could that strategy work?

Hamid Karzai has been saying the same thing for a long time: let us talk to the sane elements. Richard Holbrooke said so recently. If you look at the history of such long conflicts around the world, these dialogues become necessary for the move to peace and normalcy. It happened in the case of Arafat and it happened in the case of the African National Congress.

But the Swat deal turned out to be a disaster...
That deal was a wrong call. It was made with Maulana Sufi Muhammad the father-in-law of Maulana Fazlulla. But then he is not behind the trouble. The real trouble makers used the deal to stand behind him and pushed their own agenda of creating more disturbances in other parts of Pakistan.

But the Swat disaster turned out to be a blessing in disguise. It brought home the fact that these groups were not looking for peace. They were not even looking to implement the Sharia! It discredited the Taliban beyond repair.

For the first time it became clear that these men were not protectors of Islam and that their real agenda was
purely political and driven by outside factors.

It's clear from your book that the leaders of allied Taliban groups lie to mislead their questioners. How can you bank on anything they say to put together your research?

I never relied on a single source during my research. Besides, I am a Pashtun and I speak Pashto. I sit with these guys and talk to them, stay with them. I don't go for cursory visits or seek interpretors who will always translate words the way you want to hear them.

What is your one abiding impression of the common people of these affected tribal territories?

Once you are a guest in their homes they will protect you with their lives. They will die to save your life, they
will starve to feed you. I have stayed in homes where on the other side of the wall I knew a family was hosting a foreign insurgent. They protect both equally. I was in Wana in South Waziristan during the 2004 operations. In the night when there were gun battles all around me, the people I stayed with told me: "You just sleep. We are guarding this house." And I never once felt unsafe.

Have the events of these last few years taught the locals the need for greater caution in harbouring foreign 'guests''?

The government needs to provide these areas better governance, offer source of livelihood and security. Make them realise that they belong to the state and integrate them with the mainstream so that they accept the law of the land. The Pakistan President recently announced plans to integrate FATA politically with the rest of the country.

People who have been dealing largely with mullah, madrassa and mosque will have a fourth force to deal with -- political parties which will lobby for their own manifestos and that means an offer of alternative thought and
leadership.