Collapsing stars end in bang hurling debris for millions of light years. A collapsing country creates geopolitical tectonic disturbances. Breakup of the USSR is still churning out debris and the collapsed Balkans is still simmering with volcanic anger and sense of humiliation. In our neighbourhood Pakistan is burning in volcanic churning. The jihad-bacterial-colony has been severely bitten by the same bacteria of jihad it concocted in the name of Allah, Mullahs and Generals. A collapsing Pakistan, USA not standing with props, is likely to cause serious disturbances in Afghanistan and India particularly and the entire geopolitical region in general, not in too far future. The USA has the habit of deserting its allies when no more required.
Taking advantage of the situation Hakimullah Baitullah, presumed leader of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan in an interview to a foreign correspondent announced that after occupying Pakistan his Taliban would be on Hindoostan border and try to occupy the kufr country. This cannot be ignored as the flamboyant outburst by a young tribal leader flush with gun power and ready to prove that he is the worthy successor of his father-in-law Baitullah Mehsud. The Mehsud tribe along with the Waziris and Burki tribes of South Waziristan has a special relationship with post-independence India.
When Jinnah and Pakistan decided to send armed Lashkars to invade unguarded Kashmir of Mharaja Hari Singh, the South Waziristan tribes were recruited by Abdul Qayum Khan and Sardar Shaukat Hayat Khan. Qayum Khan defied the directions of the British Governor of the NWFP and followed Jinnah’s command. He placed the command of the Mehsud groups of tribes numbering about 25, 000 under Col. Gaideen Khan Abdullai Mahsud, brought them to Muzaffarabad by private trucks and busses and launched them on October 23, 1947 with orders to occupy Srinagar, loot the treasury and seize the palace. They reached the outskirts of Srinagar on October 29 pillaging, killing and looting all the way. When opposed by just arrived Indian army the ill armed Mehsuds did not stand chance. The surviving 5000 dispersed and only 500 remained with Gaideen Khan. Later the outside tribes were replaced by regular Pakistan army under guidance of General Akbar Khan. Some of the remaining Mehsud fought alongside Pakistan army till they were also pushed back by the Indian forces. But for the unfortunate ceasefire and reference to UN the Indian forces would have cleared up the entire Kashmir and routed all the Mehsud tribal lashkars in another ten days.
Hakimullah’s threat to India may sound empty at this point of time. It may not be possible for Pakistan to inspire the descendants of the Pir of Wana South Waziristan (As Syed Yousuf Mehmood Faizullah Al-Gilani Baghdadi), Pir Ghulam Dastgir (Sultan ul Asr Hazrat Sultan Ghulam Dastgir Al-Qadiri descendant of Hazrat Sultan Bahu), and Malik Akhya Jan Wazir (Izzatullah) to motivate their tribes to invade Kashmir again. This possibility may arise if Pakistan can settle its disputes with the TTP and start settling them around Manshera and Muzaffarabad and train them again for attacking India in smaller guerrilla groups. Since history has no boundary, so also the nations have no limits of dirty tricks. Pakistan may use the TTP against India in near future.
Hakimullah Mehsud
Though under severe attack in FATA and South Waziristan the TTP is not yet finished. Taliban was created by Pakistan in 1994 to capture the political space in Afghanistan. The TTP was launched in December 2007 by Baitullah Mehsud of Brumi khel of Mehsud tribe. He was associated with Afghan Taliban movement, implementing sharia rule and was later appointed by Mullah Omar as the Governor of Waziristan. There are reports to indicate that Baitulah had roaring relationship with the Inter Services Intelligence and Pakistan army. Though he vouched to fight against the US and the UK he enjoyed Pak support till Musharraf decided to attack the Lall Masjid.
Though Baitullah of Mehsud tribe was designated governor of Mahmond area by Mullah Omar, he was not the only Taliban leader in Pakistan. Several other groups still operate-some at high pitch and others collaborate with the ISI and Pakistan army in assisting the al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban. Some groups collaborated with Baitullah and others operate in their own areas and inside Pakistan.
Major Taliban groups in Pakistan are:
— Taliban Classical: Mullah Omar Group- strength 7000
— Maulvi Jalaluddin Haqqani Group- strength 5000
— Tehrik-e-Teluba- Orakzai Agency- Mullah Safi -3000
— Tehrik-e- Teluba- Quetta Agency- Saifur Jalali- 3000
— Tehrike-Taliban, Pakistan- Baitullah Mehsud, South Waziri area-strength 7000.
— Splinter Pakistani Taliban Groups in NWFP, Swat and Waziri Areas- Md. Mokhtar Mojahid (2000); Mufti Latifullah Hakimi (2000); Md. Yusof (2000). All loosely connected to Mehsud and Khalid Taliban Groups
— Tehrik-eNefaz-Shariat-Mohammadi (Maulana Fazlullah, Swat area)
— Maulvi Nazir + Tohir Youldashev group. Youldashev dies recently in US bombing.
— Tora Bora Taliban- Created by son of Late Maulvi Khalis, aligned to Haqqani.
— Umar Khalid group of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. Mohmand Area
— LeT, Lashkar-e-Islam, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Lashkar-e- Mohammadia- They wax and wane with major groups.
Pakistan is presently directing offensive in South Waziristan areas, where two major Pakistani Taliban groups are led by Hafiz Gul Bahadar. It has a strength of about 2000 fighters. The South Waziristan faction, led by Mullah Nazir has another 2000 odd Talibanis. The North and South group divided into divergent Khels had agreed in late 2008 to put an end to a local feud and their differences with Baitullah Mehsud, the overall leader of the Pakistani Taliban. The three groups had joined forces to prevent outside enemies from dividing the Taliban.
The three leaders met at an undisclosed location in the Waziristan region. The Taliban warlords agreed to form a 13 member shura, or council. Leadership of the shura would rotate and Baitullah, Nazir, and Bahadar would sit on the council. It is unclear if Nazir and Bahadar will join Baitullah’s Tehrik-e-Taliban, or the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan. There are reports of strong ISI support to the Waziri groups. Baitullah’s group, which operates in all of the tribal areas and throughout the Northwest Frontier Province, had defeated earlier the Pakistani military in multiple battles, forcing the government to scuttle peace agreements. The move to unite the Waziristan factions had come after the Taliban achieved its greatest victory yet by humiliating government forces in Swat and forcing the state to cede a vast region in the Northwest Frontier Province. Mullah Fazlullah, the second in command of the Tehrik-e-Taliban, had led the fighting in Swat. That phase of war between Pakistan army and Taliban ended in a draw. The army is back and the Talibans are recapturing the lost ground.
According to latest study by Bill Roggio of The Long War Journal the structural alignment of the Talibans in Waziristan has undergone changes. “The Waziristan region is divided into two tribal agencies, North and South Waziristan. There are four major Taliban figures in the two agencies, with an array of allied terror groups based in the region. The operation will focus on only one Taliban group, based in South Waziristan. In North Waziristan, the Haqqani Network operates in and around Miramshah, while Hafiz Gul Bahadar controls much of North Waziristan. Other Taliban commanders include Saddiq Noor and Maulana Abdul Khaliq Haqqani. Al Qaeda operative Abu Kasha al Iraqi runs a fiefdom in the Mir Ali region.
In South Waziristan, the two main Taliban leaders are Waliur Rehman Mehsud, based in the Makeen-Ladha-Sararogha region, and Mullah Nazir, based in the Wana region. Qari Hussain Mehsud, the notorious trainer of child suicide bombers and a senior military commander, is based in Kotkai. Al Qaeda, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Islamic Jihad Union, Hezb-i-Islami Gulbuddin, and a host of Pakistani jihadi groups such as the Jaish-e-Mohammed, the Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, and the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen all have bases in both North and South Waziristan.”
Next to Afghan border the Waziri Talibans are able to obtain unlimited supplies from Afghan Talibans and it has not been possible for the NATO to gain foothold in that area. Though the terrains in Waziri areas are less hostile than the Swat the Pakistan army had earlier suffered 4 reverses in wars against the Talibans in this region.
The Waziri belt is also a theatre of operation of the al Qaeda. Its commander Ilyas Kashmiri, chief of Pakistan Harkat-ul-Jihad- al Islami and Brigade 313 of al Qaeda is still active. He operated in Indian Kashmir at the behest of the ISI and Pakistan army. However, he fell out with them when he was asked by the ISI to join the Jais-e-Mohammad. Alleged to be the mastermind of attempt on Musharraf’s life and recent attack in Rawalpindi GHQ he survived US drone attack. Considered a top commander of al Qaeda, Ilyas Kashmiri lords over in areas of North Waziristan. The US also now officially agrees that the al Qaeda is based in Pakistan and the government would consider ways and means to approach the threat. Rahm Emanuel, the White House Chief of Staff however, did not clarify how the US propose to handle gradual but fast collapse of Pakistan into the laps of the Taliban, Qaeda forces. At present it has no strategy but to support Pakistan army and ensure that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons do not fall into the hands of the Islamic Jihadist groups.
It is presumed Pakistan would put all its might (presently 28,000 soldiers and tanks are the ground) and bring Waziristan under control. Earlier operations in Swat and Bannu, Tank etc areas by Pakistan and USA have yielded some results. Nearly 700 Talibans have been killed and over 4000 are in custody. The dislodged people have started returning to their villages. But the government has not been able to reorganize the police and judiciary system and other civil administration machineries in the area. Acute shortage of food, lack of water and electricity has made the war torn zone weary. Some army elements are still forced to stay on in that area. According to reports al Qaeda and Taliban forces are again reoccupying their positions in Swat and adjacent areas. More young tribal fighters are joining the rank to avenge attack by Pakistan army. Though the US claims that Yuldashev, the Uzbek Taliban leader was killed in a drone attach according to Pakistan journalists Talibans from Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and Xinxiang are gain trekking back to Swat areas. As winters are severe in Swat region security experts expect new arrivals of al Qaeda and Taliban fighters in the region.
An eminent Pakistani journalist friend also agrees with this observation. : “At the same time, there are signals that the Taliban in the Swat area in North-West Frontier Province are regrouping after being pushed back by the army this year. It is likely that by the time the snow chokes major supply routes, the Taliban will have seized all lost ground in the Swat Valley.
By marching into South Waziristan, the military has taken something of a gamble as it is highly unlikely to eliminate the militant threat. Indeed, the past seven or so years have shown that after any operation against militants, the militants have always gained from the situation. By the same token, the militants don’t have the capacity to permanently control ground beyond their areas in South Waziristan and North Waziristan. In this situation, where the militants and the military can’t defeat one another, and if the fighting continues, a political crisis could be provoked. This would weaken the state of Pakistan and its institutions.” Syed Salim Shahzad in Asia Times October 20 2009.
General Kiyani has organised air-dropping of appeal to the “patriotic” Mehsud tribe for cooperation in fighting the Taliban in Waziristan. The appeal said that army action was not against the common Mehsud people but was directed against the enemies of the state. What Kiyani did not say that in any large scale military attack very few militants are killed but ground action and air bombing has uprooted more than a million civilians? They are escaping to safer places creating another humanitarian crisis.
Initial feedback from South Waziristan indicates the army has so far marched into the plain areas and has not entered the difficult terrain. The populace is also not cooperating with Pakistan army, declining to recruit militia to fight the TTP and al Qaeda and is often working as spies for the Taliban. The government is considering imposition of collective fine on the villagers for supporting Taliban. But already bad news is coming out of the area. The Taliban have stalled the Pakistani Army’s advance on one of its three major fronts in South Waziristan and retook a town captured by the Army just yesterday (Oct. 19). Taliban fighters forced the Army from the town of Kotkai just one day after the military said it was secured. The Taliban claimed the Army took heavy casualties as it was ejected from Kotkai.
The retaking of Kotkai is the first visible victory for the group since the military launched its three-pronged offensive aimed at the Taliban heartlands in South Waziristan. More than 28,000 soldiers are pitted against more than 10,000 of the Taliban’s best fighters. “We gave them a really tough time in Kotkai,” Azam Tariq the new spokesman for the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan told McClatchy of Miami Herald on 20th October. Between 40 and 45 Pakistani soldiers and three Taliban fighters were killed in the counteroffensive, Tariq claimed. Kotkai is the home town of Hakimullah Mehsud, the leader of the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, and Qari Hussain Mehsud, Hakimullah’s senior lieutenant and trainer of suicide bombers. Local Pakistani intelligence officials confirmed that the Army was beaten back from Kotkai but claimed only six soldiers and a major were killed during the heavy fighting.
Territorial jurisdiction of the Taliban is not confined to the Afghan-Pakistan borders. They are now active in Punjab and Sind. Tehrik-e-Taliban has flourishing units in Karachi. Operating from mosques and madrasas the TTP volunteers often try to shut down barber shops, beauty parlors and several times damaged video parlors. They distribute leaflets directing people to destroy liquor vends, burn down cigarette and pan (betel leaf) stalls. The TTP Karachi clashed with the Mohajirs (migrants from India) and police on several occasions at Korangi industrial area, Baloch Goth, Qasaba Colony and Khybar Mohalla. According to some estimate by Sind police the TTP is gradually spreading to the interiors of Sind towards Indian borders.
According to Karachi metropolitan police it had arrested on October 19 Akhtar Zaman, believed to be the chief of the TTP’s Karachi chapter, and three accomplices identified as Samiullah alias Shamim, Fazal Kareem and Munawwar Khan from a Sohrab Goth hideout. These men had allegedly tried to blow up an oil depot in Kemari on September 15 2009 by using an explosives-laden vehicle.
Karachi is reeking with Talibans from Punjab (SSP and LeJ) and NWFP. With MQM factional fighting, innumerable gangs of dacoits and mafia operators Karachi give the look of a mafia metropolis. “How safe is Karachi? Not too much. An Iranian diplomat kidnapped by the TTP in the NWFP was finally brought to Karachi because it was safer than any other city. The police went up to the place where he was being kept but could not face the firepower of the terrorists and had to give up. A Karachi surgeon Dr Waheed treated the wounds of an Al Qaeda killer. The doctor, once acquitted, had fled to South Waziristan and was killed there by a drone. The administration needs to disembarrass itself from the complications of ethnic-based target-killing and focus more on the fallout of a TTP stampede in the northwest of the country. Karachi can be worse than South Punjab.” Najam Sethi, Editor Daily Times 21.10.09.
Punjab has become another important hub for the Taliban. The Taliban draws main strength from the Sipah Sahaba (soldiers of the Allah) and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, two extremely orthodox Sunni militant groups. Initially formed to fight the Shia and Ahmadiyas these outfits gradually drifted towards al Qaeda and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. Sipah Sahaba was formed at the instance of Zia-ul-Haq to bring religious purity in Pakistan. The LeJ later branched out of the SSP. After demolition of the Lall Masjid in Lahore by Musharraf government the Sunni militants have arrayed their forces against Pakistan establishment. In fact, Tehrik-e-Taliban Punjab was launched by Muhammed Aquil alias Dr Usman, the only accused who survived in the recent attack on Pakistan army GHQ near Rawalpindi.
If local police authorities of Punjab are taken seriously (not often taken by ISI) the heartland of Punjab and southern Punjab have become free playgrounds of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Punjab. The Makaz ud Dawa and Lashkar-e-Taiba maintain tactical distance from these groups but they do not stand in their way in accomplishing acts of subversion against the state. They also enjoy support of Jamait-e-Islami Pakistan, Jaish-e-Mohammad, Ahl-e-Hadith Pakistan and al Qaeda. According to Punjab police chief Deepalpur, Shekhupura, Mianwali, Sangla, Malakwal, Miranshah, Bandyal, Jhang Maghiana, Okra, Pak Pattan and Haveli Lakha etc areas are strongholds of the Punjab Taliban groups. They have several cells in the walled city of Lahore and in its outskirts. Some of the encampments are within 15/20 km from Indian borders.
The TTP under Baitullah and TTP under Aquil strictly follow the Wahhabi tenets of Islam and in recent months al Qaeda influence has introduced Saudi and Egyptian brand Salafism in these organisations. Both the TTP factions are members of International Islamic Front headed by Osama bin Laden. The Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) and the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) are also members of the IIF. This united front apparently excludes Lashkar-e-Taiba headed by Markaz chief Hafiz Mohammad Sayeed. The Markaz and the LeT are still under control and command of the ISI. They have not openly aligned with Taliban-al Qaeda groups. However, the Markaz and the Let are regularly supported by bin Laden and his deputy al Jawahiri. Perhaps the Pakistan government is hesitant to take any action against Hafiz and other important LeT leaders. Other groups operating in Indian Kashmir are funded by the ISI but the LeT continues to be the reliable auxiliary of the ISI.
It is clear that that al Qaeda and Taliban ideology and armed guerrilla warfare tactics have spread in Punjab and Sind, though the Baloch territory except certain areas in Quetta has been spared from Taliban and Lashkar al Zill operations by al Qaeda and Taliban.
As Pakistan is a collapsing country with deadly nuclear arsenal and major Chinese presence the western experts opine that sooner than later the Islamic jihadi groups from Central Asia, western China and even southern Russia may throng Pakistani soil and make the country as the platform for international jihad against Christianity, Hinduism and Judaism. In strategic calculations these factors are relevant, though in immediate future the USA and the NATO may not allow Pakistan to collapse just for the sake of making last efforts to win the mission impossible in Afghanistan. India is also not interested in the collapse of Pakistan. If Pakistan collapses and the army swings uncertainly people like Hakimullah and waves of jihadi locusts may start diverting their hoards to India. Their aim is to establish Islamic Emirates in Afghanistan and Pakistan and recapture India, a country with second largest Muslim population. India is a buffer between Islamicised Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan and the rest of South and South East Asia.
India’s position is vulnerable. Internal preoccupation and to a limited extent US pressure has impeded temporarily Pakistan’s jihadi tirade against India. Had Qasab not been arrested and had not the western countries produced overwhelming evidence against 26/11 raiders the jihadis would have heightened attacks in India. However, with internal turmoil created by the Maoists, external pressure from the jihadists, intermittent spewing of fire by the Chinese dragon India is beset with very serious security threats. China would not hesitate to help Pakistan to divert, at some stage, its Taliban hoards to India, instead of their marching to Xinxiang. The USA would not like to see the Indian buffer to disappear threatening security ambience in entire South East Asia, tilting equilibrium in Central Asia, and providing fillip to the Islamists in South East Asia. It is natural that under such strategic scenario increased Indo-US entente is likely to be firmed up. India has emerged as the pivot of stability in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Central Asia, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Myanmar and is emerging as a bulwark against Chinese intransigence. While it is necessary to improve bilateral relationship with China it is also necessary to remember that reconciliation at nation’s greater interests is not acceptable. Not on 1962 terms; India must talk on its own terms now making clear that China is not dealing with a Pacific Atoll.
The final aspect that requires brief examination is: are Indian Muslims ready to accept the Taliban forces and social and cultural values imposed by them in the name of Islam? There is a short answer: NO.
But there are longer answers, rather circumstances which indicate that forces of the SIMI, Indian Mujahideen, Ahl-e-Hadith Hindustan, and over a dozen other Muslim militant outfits in various parts of the country believe in the ideology of al Qaeda, Talibanism and the tenets of Salafism. These trends are swamping down the influence of the Indian Deoband School of teachings, which prefer to treat moderate grounds. Not visible from open observation some sneaking look inside these Islamicist groups indicates that they are keen to welcome the Taliban-the Pakistani version of Islamic Emirate.
The jihadi modules and cells (referred in this portal) numbering about 800 are still active. There has been no deactivation of the subterranean activities of the SIMI and Indian Mujahideen and cells of the HuJI and Lashkar-e-Taiba. Hijbul Mujahideen (Pak) and Jamait-ul-Mujahideen (Bangladesh) are active and these outfits are expanding underground activities. Pakistan has concentrated on jihadi infiltration in Kashmir. In last six month the Indian forces have thwarted about twenty infiltration efforts and killed over 56 infiltrating Pakistani jihadis. The Lashkar-e-Taiba is totally loyal to the ISI but under impact of the 26/11 proceedings the process of infiltrating them into India has been slowed down. Intelligence inputs have recently unearthed LeT plot to mount assault on installations in Jamnagar and other targets in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Delhi and Hyderabad.
A study of iMuslim blog spots and website contents indicate these have become very popular amongst the educated (English) section of Muslim youth and even the ulama class have now become a part of the audience of Internet jihad propaganda.
“Muslims have creatively applied the Internet in the interest of furthering and understanding of the religion for other believers, especially those affiliated to a specific world view and. In some cases, a wider non-Muslim readership.” iMuslim-rewriting the house of islam, Gary R Bunt p, 13. Hurst & Company, London.
Systematic studies of digital Islam has been made by Gilles Kepel, Bruce Lawrence, Castells, and Peter Mandeville etc authors. The US and UK security agencies and certain universities carry out systematic studies on this subject. Some of the important iMuslim sites are MuslimSpace.com, IslamicTube.com, al-Islam.com, Islamway.com, Al-Sistani.com, Al-Qaradawi.com, Alminbar.com, jihad-algeria.com, Dirty Kuffar.com (Video), Tawhid wa’l Jihad, Abualbukhary.org, Qudsway.com, Islamic Torrents, Islamicvideo.nets, Al-Quradawi.net, Al-needa, Badr al-Riyyadh. Especially al Qaeda related cyber sites are Alsakifa.com, Quqaz.com, al-ansar.net, al-alali.net, saraya.com, sahwal.com etc. Jihad sympathizer’s cyber nets are maktabal-jihad, jihadunspun.com, shareeah.com, kavakaz.tv, ummahnews.com, kavakazcenter.net, kavakazcenter.info, Cihad.net, Clearguidance.com etc.
In Pakistan and Bangladesh blog spots, website of Markaz-ud Dawa, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Harkat-ul-Jihad al Islami and Muslimvoice.net actively preach jihad. Net savvy religious leaders and even some ulamas run net-sites to propagate their brands of Islam, supposed supremacy of Islam in the subcontinent and the need for protection of minority rights. One common feature with some of these websites is that they appear for certain period and disappear to avoid detection and action. The Al Qaeda and Taliban sites behave in the same manner. As far as blog spots are concerned there are too many web spots to monitor the regular bloggers on Islamic and jihad related issues.
Another important issue that has been neglected by the agencies is limited Cable TV broadcast of al Qaeda and Taliban tapes Muslim concentrated areas of Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Mumbai etc places. The contents encourage the Muslims to embrace Salafism, follow Osama bin Laden and accept Talibanism as the way of societal lives and culture of the Muslims globally. These materials are distributed in CD/VCD form as well for private viewing. From these indices this can be concluded that though the general mood of the Indian Muslims is averse to Talibanism, significant urban and rural Muslims are being converted to Talibanism courtesy iMuslim tools of propaganda. Despite verbal filibustering by the politicians and confidence of the army command the state police are not at all trained and oriented to take on the challenge in case the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and Punjab decide to assume activities inside India. India is in a state of unpreparedness. The general attitude is lackadaisical. One senior police officer of a western state told the author: Dilli dur ast. Transposition of the past to the present and future can only be the game plan of the lunatics, not the State Establishment. State polices are still dream walking.
maloykrishnadhar.com
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