All is not quiet on terror front

A.S. Dulat

TODAY, WE talk about the war on terror. I would say we’ve been fighting this for more than 20 years — in Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir (Northeast is a different story), and now the rest of the country.

But the Mumbai terror attack has been a watershed. It has shaken up everything. It has certainly brought focus to what was lacking earlier.

Earlier, it was a bomb here and a bomb there. In Varanasi, in Hyderabad. And the incidents were treated individually. But the 26/11 episode was like an invasion from the sea. It made people realise how grave the threat of terrorism is. Since we are focused on the problem now as a coordinated phenomenon, various steps are being taken to revamp the security set-up. The Multi-Agency Centre (MAC) has been revitalised, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) has been set up, much more awareness is being generated among state police forces, and special attention is being given to modernising them and equipping them with contemporary weaponry and gadgets. Gradually everyone is becoming alive to the situation.

During the recent meeting of chief ministers on internal security, the Prime Minister brought home the real meaning of the terrorist threat as he spoke of credible information about continuing and sustained preparations in a neighbouring country to launch attacks against us. The question asked today is, will there be another Mumbai? And when and where?

I don’t see another Mumbai happening in a hurry. A lot of planning has to go into an attack of that magnitude. At the same time, the threat has not gone away completely. As the prime minister has indicated, the threat from Lashkar-e-Tayyaba and other Pakistani outfits is very real indeed. The Lashkar has always been close to the ISI. In Kashmir, during the months of July and August, violence always increases as passes re-open. This year also there has been infiltration and an increase in violence. We are hearing about encounters and shootouts every now and then. Not only J&K, the Laskhar threat to the rest of the country is also very much alive.

Why is Pakistan not taking any action against LeT chief Hafiz Sayeed? The truth is this is very difficult for the ISI to do since the Laskhar has always been very close to it. Pakistan tries to sell the theory that Lashkar has become autonomous. There may be a couple of rogue modules, but what happens in Kashmir — and I am talking about Kashmir because intruders’ attacks happen more often in the Valley than in any other state — cannot happen without the connivance and backing of the Pakistan military. The Kashmiris know this, and they fear this. That is why, in Kashmir, even the separatists have a high security cover, some even have Z-plus security. This is because of the persisting high level of threat.

There is no such thing as foolproof security when people are ready to commit suicide. Security is being beefed up, but this is a long-drawn process. India’s threshold of violence will also be kept in view by those who prepare attacks against us.

For instance, a parliament attack or Kargil cannot keep happening. It is not a coincidence that nothing has happened after 26/11. Pakistan has held back because the Americans have applied pressure and so have we.

Left-wing extremism is also a serious internal security issue. Several states — Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa — bear the brunt but the situation is bad even in West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. This is why the Prime Minister and the Union home minister have said that the greatest threat is coming from the Maoists. We have been found wanting in being able to handle them. In Bastar, for instance, there are areas where the police forces can’t enter because there are not enough policemen and adequate weapons to deal with the situation.

Whenever there is a crisis situation, as in Punjab once and in J&K, the coordination is very good. In the rest of the country, since it is an incident here and there, the response is scattered. It has improved after 26/11. NSG hubs have been set up in metros, besides a host of other steps. Active steps are being taken and the home minister himself is involved in day-to-day supervision.

If you think attacks will now stop, you are wrong. Things will happen. However, the tendency is to make intelligence failures appear glaring. In reality, there has always been coordination between the RAW, IB, military intelligence. After the 9/11 attack in America, it was said that there was a lack of coordination between the CIA and the FBI. We must realise that there is a limit to such coordination. Every agency likes to protect its turf. The bottomline is that when there is a crisis, there is excellent coordination on a day-to-day basis. For example: the Unified Command in J&K. A seriousness is evident after the Mumbai episode where there appeared to be a system collapse, as the Pradhan Committee noted. A more efficient linking between the gathered intelligence and police response is also desired.

A.S. Dulat is a former chief of RAW, India’s external intelligence agency