Nuclear doubts

There was this big difference between Pokhran I in 1974 when Indira Gandhi was prime minister and Congress was in power and Pokhran II in 1998 when Atal Bihari Vajpayee was prime minister and the BJP-led NDA was in power.


The politicians and scientists claimed in 1974 that it was a peaceful nuclear explosion (PNE), though hawks and sceptics at home and abroad claimed that in truth it was a nuclear weapons test.

In 1998, the BJP and the scientists proclaimed that it was indeed a nuclear weapons test which not only had a major political advantage for the BJP but also led to the minimum nuclear deterrence policy. The Vajpayee government had also declared a voluntary moratorium on testing.

Now there is a cloud over the 1998 test. The statement by former defence research development organisation (DRDO) scientist K Santhanam that the thermonuclear yields of the 1998 tests were below the standard levels brings into the open what others, especially overseas experts, had pointed out then. He is not necessarily debunking the explosion as much as pressing the need for more tests and cautioning that India should not give up its option to test. His concern should be seen in the context of speculation that India is under pressure to sign the comprehensive test ban treaty (CTBT).

But his remarks would be interpreted differently in the scientific, security and political spheres. In the scientific sphere, it would be taken as a statement of fact with no negative impact. In the security establishment however, it has been seen as an admission of defeat. Hence the prompt rejection of Santhanam's claim by naval chief, Admiral Sureesh Mehta. The then national security adviser Brajesh Mishra has also pooh-poohed the perception that the bomb was a dud.

The time is now for sober assessment of the facts of India's nuclear capability. What prompted Santhanam is not clear but it would be unfortunate if this becomes a needless controversy and it does not lead to serious thinking on nuclear policy. India has in any case already stated that it reserves the right for more tests. Nor is there any direct pressure to sign the CTBT, since the US has so far not signed it either. But the scientific part remains. Sooner or later the government will have to clear the air on the 1998 tests and this will have a bearing on future experiments and our strategic posture.